The Department of Justice (DoJ) today published Research and Statistics Bulletin:
• 27/2018 ‘Adult and Youth Reoffending In Northern Ireland (2015/16 Cohort)’.
This annual Official Statistics publication provides information on the one year proven reoffending rate for offenders who received a non-custodial disposal at court, a diversionary disposal or who were released from custody during 2015/16 within Northern Ireland. Information is presented in relation to the full cohort and also disaggregated in relation to adults (those aged 18 and over) and youths (those aged 17 and under).The main findings of this report are presented below.
Research and Statistical Bulletin 27/2018: Adult and Youth Reoffending in Northern Ireland (2015/16 Cohort)
This annual bulletin provides information on the one year proven reoffending rate for offenders who received a non-custodial disposal at court, a diversionary disposal or who were released from custody during 2015/16 within Northern Ireland. Information is presented in relation to the full cohort and also disaggregated in relation to adults (those aged 18 and over) and youths (those aged 17 and under).
Of the 21,982 people included in the 2015/16 cohort, 4,059 (18.5%) reoffended during the one year observational period (adults 17.6%, youths 29.7%). The overall reoffending rate is being used as an indicator for the Draft Programme for Government and the NICS Outcomes Delivery Plan.
Of the 4,059 who reoffended, over two-fifths (44.2%) committed their first reoffence within the first three months (adults 43.5%, youths 49.8%).
In terms of offending history, 60.1% of the 21,982 had committed previous offences, ranging from one to 583 distinct offences, (adults 61.9%, youths 36.9%).
Overall, 12.2% of females and 20.0% of males had reoffended (adult females 11.5% and adult males 19.1%, youth females 19.6% and youth males 32.4%).
The one year proven reoffending rate for;
- custody releases was 40.8% (adults 39.1% and 40 of 41 youths).
- court community disposal (supervision) was 34.7% (adults 31.5%, youths 60.1%).
- court community disposal (no supervision) was 18.1% (adults 17.6%, youths 50.7%).
- diversionary disposal was 16.4% (adults 14.0%, youths 24.8%).
The highest reoffending rates were found amongst those who had committed a baseline offence in the ‘Burglary’ category (38.5%), followed by ‘Robbery’ (32.4%). This was the same for adults only, (‘Burglary’ 38.8% and ‘Robbery’ 28.8%). For youths, the highest reoffending rates were found amongst those who had committed a baseline offence in the ‘Criminal Damage’ category (39.3%), followed by ‘Public Order’ (31.9%).
Notes to editors:
- In 2013, the Department of Justice’s Analytical Services Group embarked on a project to revise the methodology used to calculate recidivism rates within Northern Ireland, bringing it more in line with established methodology in England and Wales. For a more detailed methodology, refer to ‘Northern Ireland Reoffending Methodology: Methodology and Glossary Part 1’.
- Any study of reoffending rates is prone to misunderstanding and misrepresentation if sufficient care is not taken to observe the caveats around each figure. For example, for both adult and youth cases, the reoffending rates are highest for those released from custody and lowest for those given a diversionary disposal. Inevitably what needs to be taken into account in the interpretation of these figures is, most obviously, (a) the seriousness of the offence which led to the disposal in the first place and (b) the previous criminal history of the individual as a factor in the original disposal, together with a range of other criminogenic, demographic and, indeed, administrative/procedural issues. What these figures do not mean is that diversionary disposals are, irrespective of other factors, necessarily a more efficient deterrent to reoffending.
- A range of statistical controls and procedures are therefore required before comparisons can meaningfully be made across different reoffending rates. A second methodology paper therefore provides a discussion on how overall reoffending rates can be compared, ‘Northern Ireland Reoffending Methodology: Methodology and Glossary Part 2 (Revised August 2015)’.
- Official Statistics are produced in accordance with the Code of Practice for Statistics. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs and are produced free from any political interference. They are also subject to restrictions in terms of pre-release access.
- View the publication on Statistics and Research or you can obtain a copy from Analytical Services Group, Castle Buildings, Stormont Estate, Belfast Bt4 3SG. Email: email@example.com
-  Base reoffending rates should not be used to measure the comparative success of different disposal types in their own right. The reason for this is that different offender characteristics and histories, coupled with different offence types, will themselves be related to the type of disposal given. Therefore, offender profiles may differ substantially between the different disposal types.
- All media enquiries should be directed to the Department of Justice Press Office on 028 9052 6444. Out of office hours please contact the duty press officer on 028 9037 8110.
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