Adult and Youth Reoffending in Northern Ireland Cohort 2014/15 Published Today

The Department of Justice (DOJ) today published Research and Statistics Bulletin 29/2017 ‘Adult and Youth Reoffending In Northern Ireland (2014/15 Cohort)’.

This is an Official Statistics publication.  It provides proven reoffending rates both for adults and for youths aged 17 and under who have been given a non-custodial disposal at court, a diversionary disposal or who have been released from custody during 2014/15.  The main findings of this report are presented below.

Research and Statistical Bulletin 29/2017: Adult and Youth Reoffending in Northern Ireland (2014/15 Cohort)

This bulletin provides information on the one year proven reoffending rate for offenders who received a non-custodial disposal at court, a diversionary disposal or who were released from custody during 2014/15.Information is presented in relation to the full cohort and also broken down by adults (those aged 18 and over) and youths (those aged 17 and under).

Of the 23,627 people included in the 2014/15 cohort, 4,221 (17.9%) reoffended during the one year observational period (Appendix 1, Table 1a).

Of the 4,221 who reoffended, over two-fifths (43.6%) committed their first reoffence within the first three months (Appendix 1, Table 2a).

In terms of offending history, 59.9% of the 23,627 had committed previous offences ranging from one to 579 distinct offences. Reoffending rates generally increased with the number of previous offences (Appendix 1, Table 4).

Overall, 11.9% of females and 19.3% of males had reoffended (Appendix 1, Table 7).

• Base reoffending rates should not be used to measure the comparative success of different disposal types in their own right. The reason for this is that different offender characteristics and histories, coupled with different offence types, will themselves be related to the type of disposal given. Therefore, offender profiles may differ substantially between the different disposal types. Subject to this necessary caveat (Appendix 1, Table 8):
• The one year proven reoffending rate for those released from custody was 38.2%.
• The one year proven reoffending rate for those who received a community disposal at court requiring supervision was 35.2%.
• The one year proven reoffending rate for those who received a community disposal at court not requiring supervision was 17.4%.
• The one year proven reoffending rate for those who received a diversionary disposal was 16.7%.
• The highest reoffending rates were found amongst those who had committed a baseline offence in the ‘Burglary’ category (36.9%), followed by ‘Criminal Damage’ (28.6%) (Appendix 1, Table 9).

Adult Cohort

Of the 22,064 adult offenders included in the 2014/15 cohort, 3,718 (16.9%) committed a proven reoffence within a year following being released from custody, receiving a non-custodial disposal at court or receiving a diversionary disposal (Appendix 1, Table 1b).

Overall, 43.2% of the 3,718 who reoffended committed their first reoffence within the first three months of the observation period (Appendix 1, Table 2b).

In terms of offending history, 61.2% of the 22,064 had committed previous offences, ranging from 1 to 579 distinct offences.Reoffending rates largely increased with the number of previous offences (Appendix 1, Table 4).

Overall, 10.7% of adult females and 18.4% of adult males had reoffended (Appendix 1, Table 7).

Subject to the caveat regarding the comparison of base offending rates previously given (Appendix 1, Table 8):

• The one year proven reoffending rate for adults released from custody was 37.4%.
• The one year proven reoffending rate for adults who received a community disposal at court requiring supervision was 31.0%.
• The one year proven reoffending rate for adults who received a community disposal at court not requiring supervision was 17.0%.
• The one year proven reoffending rate for adults who received a diversionary disposal was 13.5%.
• The highest reoffending rates were found amongst those who had committed a baseline offence in the ‘Burglary’ category (35.7%), followed by ‘Public Order’ (27.1%) (Appendix 1, Table 9).

 Youth Cohort

Of the 1,563 young offenders included in the 2014/15 youth cohort, 503 (32.2%) committed a proven reoffence within a year following being released from custody, receiving a non-custodial disposal at court or receiving a diversionary disposal (Appendix 1, Table 1c).

Almost half (46.9%) of the 503 who reoffended committed their first reoffence within the first three months of the observation period (Appendix 1, Table 2c).

In terms of offending history, 40.6% of the 1,563 had committed previous offences ranging from one to 83 distinct offences. Reoffending rates increased with the number of previous offences (Appendix 1, Table 4).

Overall, 28.5% of females and 33.1% of males had reoffended (Appendix 1, Table 7).

Subject to the caveat about comparing base offending rates previously given (Appendix 1, Table 8):

• Of the 39 youths released from custody, 28 committed a proven reoffence.
• The one year proven reoffending rate for youths who received a community disposal at court requiring supervision was 60.9%.
• The one year proven reoffending rate for youths who received a community disposal at court not requiring supervision was 51.7%.
• The one year proven reoffending rate for youths who received a diversionary disposal was 27.9%.
• The highest reoffending rates were found amongst those who had committed a baseline offence in the ‘Criminal Damage’ category (37.7%), followed by ‘Violence against the Person’ (34.3%) (Appendix 1, Table 9).

Notes to editors: 

1.  In 2013, the Department of Justice’s Analytical Services Group embarked on a project to revise the methodology used to calculate recidivism rates within Northern Ireland, bringing it more in line with established methodology in England and Wales. For a more detailed methodology, refer to ‘Northern Ireland Reoffending Methodology: Methodology and Glossary Part 1’. 

2.  Any study of reoffending rates is prone to misunderstanding and misrepresentation if sufficient care is not taken to observe the caveats around each figure. For example, for both adult and youth cases, the reoffending rates are highest for those released from custody and lowest for those given a diversionary disposal. Inevitably what needs to be taken into account in the interpretation of these figures is, most obviously, (a) the seriousness of the offence which led to the disposal in the first place and (b) the previous criminal history of the individual as a factor in the original disposal, together with a range of other criminogenic, demographic and, indeed, administrative/procedural issues. What these figures do not mean is that diversionary disposals are, irrespective of other factors, necessarily a more efficient deterrent to reoffending.

3.  A range of statistical controls and procedures are therefore required before comparisons can meaningfully be made across different reoffending rates. A second methodology paper therefore provides a discussion on how overall reoffending rates can be compared, ‘Northern Ireland Reoffending Methodology: Methodology and Glossary Part 2 (Revised August 2015)’.  

4.  Official Statistics are produced in accordance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics.  They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs and are produced free from any political interference.  They are also subject to restrictions in terms of pre-release access. 

5.  View the bulletin or alternatively contact Analytical Services Group, Laganside House, Oxford Street, Belfast BT1 3LA. Email: statistics.research@justice-ni.x.gsi.gov.uk

6.  All media enquiries should be directed to the Department of Justice Press Office on 028 9052 6444. Out of hours please contact the duty press officer via pager number 07623 974 383 and your call will be returned

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